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May 8, 2009
Flu memories
Washington Post story on the 1976 Swine flu threat. Are we applying the lessons learned then to the current outbreak? No medicine or medical procedure is 100% safe. Neither is any drive to the store or dinner at home. Risk is everywhere. When the flu returns, should the government orchestrate a national inoculation program?
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In the latest MMWR, the CDC has identified that 70% of confirmed and probable U.S. H1N1 cases are with those aged 5 - 29, and whom are not hospitalized.
ReplyDeleteAL State Health Officer, Dr. Don Williamson, has said that of such cases in AL (a total of 31 probable and only 4 confirmed by CDC), the range is 4-41, with a median age of 7.
Seven!
And pork futures are really being affected!
See? I had earlier responded that "fear" motivates the stock market. Not learned behavior, not calculated sound decisions, but FEAR!
Fire!! Run! Run! Run for your lives... somewhere, there's a fire!
Personally, I've ratcheted up my pork consumption since learning about this latest "BOO!" (Not really, but I have a sizable freezer stock of pork loin. Tonight however, I cooked Polynesian chicken - from itch - because it's much better than scratch.)
Our medical scientific researchers have identified that numerous inoculations are in the best interest of overall public health, and require them for young children before entering school. It is fear and ignorance - and interestingly, predominately from the "educated" crowd - that has caused some to forego MMR & DTP and a host of other vaccines, which have proven efficacy to prevent disease.
I still say that at FOUR confirmed cases, and even with a possible 31, that's still 31/4,600,000. Not bad odds, I'd say... but only if you're a bookie. I'd bet on that loser, for certain! Why, the recent Kentucky Derby "Mine That Bird" winner had exceedingly better odds, at 50:1.
Again, the CDC says from 28 March - 4 May, 2009 that there were 394 confirmed and 414 probable cases of H1N1. Although, the total is 642 because the date of onset is not known for 248 cases, and there are 848 probable cases.
To strike such unmitigated and mindless fear and unwarranted concern into the hearts of the people deserves the most severe punishment! Why, a person has a better chance of being struck by lightning (according to NOAA - 1/5000, or knowing someone personally whom will be struck by lightning 1/500), than acquiring H1N1!
In the U.S., the total number of probable and confirmed cases represents less than 0.0000049566666667 of our population. Why, insurance companies give you better odds!
So... should people obtain inoculations for H1N1?
Why bother?
It's cheaper and easier to wash our hands, and learn proper etiquette.
But the question about pandemics and federal action remains. At this juncture - with a national population closely approximating 300,000,000 - we'd have to be concerned with areas of high population density (which would be predominately New England states, including Florida and Ohio, rounded out with California, Hawaii and Illinois) in the top 13. Although, CA, TX, NY, FL and IL round out the top five most populous states, respectively.
We'd have to talk SERIOUS numbers... not a paltry 1,000 cases amidst 300,000,000 inhabitants.
Can you say "unwarranted fear and worry"?