Jul 20, 2009

Voter Turnout

Quick! Was the percentage of Alabama African-Americans who voted in the Obama/McCain election higher or lower than the percentage voting in the Kerry/George Bush election four years earlier? Lower, says a story by Brian Lyman in The Press-Register... "Nationwide, black participation increased from 56 percent to 64 percent...however, the Census Bureau said the percentage of Alabama's black population voting in the election fell over 2004, from 64 percent to 62 percent. The percentage of whites voting in the state also fell, from 62 percent to 60 percent" Amazing! I would have bet money on a bigger turnout in '08, especially for black voters. Of course the numbers come from the U.S. Census Bureau. And we all know how wrong a census count can be. In the very first one in 1790, Thomas Jefferson was counted twice. And he was Secretary of State, an office which was in charge of the census at that time.
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  1. Warm Southern BreezeTuesday, July 21, 2009 1:23:00 PM

    Don't know if I'd trust those #s.

    Table 4a. of the CB's for VAC (Voting Age Citizens)
    "Reported Voting and Registration of the Citizen Voting-Age Population, for States: November 2008" ref: CB 11/2008 Election

    For AL
    - 71.6% of Voting Age Citizens are registered to vote
    - of that figure (Total Citizen Population=3,404,000), 62.4%VAC voted

    George Mason University has some interesting research-based facts-n-figures on voting, published in peer-review journals.

    They identify a critical flaw in the Census Bureau's presentation of the figures. Previously, the CB took the aged 18+ population and divided it into the number of votes cast.

    However, GMU establishes Voter Eligibility by eliminating those ineligible to vote - non-citizens, felons, prisoners, parolees, etc. - then takes that refined figure and divides it into the number of votes cast.

    The difference in the numbers is fascinating. Three reports - 1.) the American National Election Study, 2.) Current Population Survey's bi-annual report on population and voting, and 3.) GMU's Voting Eligible Population - were compared. The CPS has a statistical over-bias, "...whereby a greater percentage of people report voting than the aggregate statistics reported... has lower over-report bias than other surveys, such as the ANES... are essentially the best information for turnout and registration rates among various demographic subgroups."

    The three graphs basically indicating the same time trend - with the ANES, the CPS and VEP respectively indicating higher Turnout rate Comparison numbers, in descending order. For example in 2008, the VEP indicated nearly 60% Turnout Rate, the CPS nearly 65% and the ANES nearly 77%. Again, the GMU figures "adjust for non-citizens, ineligible felons, and overseas citizens. The CSAE only adjusts for non-citizens, and only began doing so after the data here were publicly released."

    "When turnout rates are calculated for those eligible to vote, a new picture of turnout emerges, which exhibits no decline since 1972. Indeed, turnout rates appear to have been restored to their earlier high levels as of 2008. The response to these facts have been mixed. The Census Bureau and the Center for the Study of the American Electorate now report citizen voting-age population turnout rates, which accounts for the largest ineligible group, non-citizens. Many pundits and academics continue to opine about voting declines. Some are actively trying to discredit these facts since it refutes a large volume of academic research on declining turnout rates, what one leading set of authors described as the "...most studied, most conjectured, and most important trend in the study of American government. After the data reported here were made public, the Census Bureau began reporting turnout rates for the citizen-voting age population, whereas previously they reported voting-age population turnout rates."

    http://elections.gmu.edu/index.html
    Dr. Michael McDonald
    Department of Public and International Affairs
    George Mason University
    4400 University Drive 3F4
    Fairfax, VA 22030-4444

    Office: 703-993-4191
    Fax: 703-993-1399
    E-mail: mmcdon@gmu.edu

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