Math Problem: Tax-Free Weekend & TBOH Events

It is with some trepidation that I venture into math somewhat more complex than needed to balance a checkbook, but...am I the only one who wonders about the math used to pronounce the "Tax- Free Weekend" and "Take Back Our Highways" a big success?

Governor Riley says the sales tax elimination was great for parents and retailers in these tough times and the state actually collected MORE tax than it would have otherwise because people buy other taxable stuff too. The New York Times Regional Newspapers' Dana Beyerle's story is one that includes that claim from Riley. But some economists say it's smoke and mirrors, that Riley is counting spending that would have occurred anyway, but is shifted to the tax-free weekend because it is more convenient for shoppers. The Poynter Journalism site includes some guidance this morning about stories on the tax-free events that includes information about states that have canceled theirs this year.

And there was "Take Back Our Highway$". Isn't there a problem with the premise? The Alabama Department of Public Safety takes the week during 2008 in which there were the most traffic fatalities (18) and then stages its mass showdown during the same week this year. But since last year's deadly week wasn't associated with any holiday or other special event, isn't that a random event?...and comparing it to the same week in 2009 is meaningless? Can DPS really take credit for the seven fewer fatalities this year? They can take credit for lots of tickets: 7,657 for speeding,, 2,862 for not wearing seat-belts or child restraints, 2,495 for not having proof of insurance and 1,245 "Driver License Violations". They also made more serious arrests...185 DUI. Here's the complete list, courtesy DPS:

For the July 25-31 period:

2009 Total	2008 Total			Total (+/-)
			Information
575	580		Accident	-5
259	237		Injuries	22
11	18		Fatalities	-7
			Activity
185	114		DUI	71
7657	3503		Speed	4154
38	14		Reckless Driving	24
182	228		Following Too Close	-46
124	0		Improper lane change	124
6	48		Improper turn	-42
23	22		Failure to Yield Right of Way	1
80	185		Traffic Control Device	-105
2862	2196		Seat Belt / Child Restraint	666
2495	1657		Insurance	838
1245	797		Driver License Violations	448
1157	0		Other traffic violations	1157
335	0		Non Traffic Arrests	335
			Warnings
1072	0		Speeding	1072
26	0		Seat Belt / Child Restraint	26
109	0		Driver License Violations	109
915	0		Other violations	915
			Other contacts
530	423		Assist	107
19	0		Vehicle Searches	19
172	129		Incident Offense Reports	43
430	102		CMV Inspections	328
291361	217861		Miles driven	73500

The Proof of Insurance tickets alone could have brought in $1.2 Million (@ $500 per) though some tickets will be voided if the driver just didn't have his or her card with them...harder to tell about the speeding tickets since it varies by how fast the driver was going and the limit where the violation occurred. So...math geniuses out there? Are my suspicions correct? Let me hear from you! [PLUS: My fellow blogger Kris at The World Around You tackles another math problem this morning: Alabama's High School Dropout rate!]