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The Cost of Conversion
A newsletter from Montgomery based Anzalone Liszt Research includes how much money is being spent in this year's presidential race, and how little impact it is having on the candidates standings. They write:
Despite the heavy amounts of spending across battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Michigan, and North Carolina, there has been little change in the horse race, an indication that this cycle is likely to produce a record amount of spending to persuade a historically small share of voters. In fact, 82% of voters in the battleground states surveyed in the USA Today/Gallup poll report that they have seen political ads over the past month (just 62% in non-battleground states have). Despite this, just 8% say that the ad changed their views on a candidate, and 70% reported that the ad confirmed their thinking about a candidate. This number is likely underrepresenting the share of voters who are persuaded, as voters are reticent to acknowledge the impact advertising has, however among the voters whose minds were changed, President Obama leads Romney 5:1. The Borrell Associates study breaks down where the dollars will be spent this cycle compared to 2008, which a more than 100% increase in spending on cable TV.
I beseeched TPM to research this, but never got a reply. It seems to me that the astronomical amount of money being raised to buy media iin this election cycle cannot all be spent, because there's just so much inventory available.
ReplyDeleteLocal stations already have clients advertising, so there can't be that many more units available to sell, especially in the so-called swing states. Are the stations going to dump all their current spots to make room for PAC ads? Will the stations just let the NAB limits slide? Will there be any room for actual programming by Election Day, or will there be only wall-to-wall commercials to watch all day and night?
Thanks for the interesting comment! If you live in Alabama or one of the other NON swing states, you'll barely notice there is an election. I'll be surprised to see any commercials for the Presidential Race. And remember station have to sell the spots are the lowest rate they have sold other spots for, so although they are great in number, they are not great in profit.
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