Mar 20, 2020

Coronavirus Projections

From a N.Y. Times article exploring the BEST and WORST scenarios for the virus in the United States:

"Now we get to the other end of the range of possibilities. Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States.


I asked Ferguson for his best case. “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said.
When that’s a best-case scenario, it’s difficult to feel optimistic."


 
And those would-be deaths will take place largely without funerals. Cremation was virtually unheard of in the 1918 epidemic, and as many as 675,000 Americans died, many many more worldwide.

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